Oahu Home Sales

The Pacific Business News reported this week that in their bleakest assessment yet of the Hawaii economy, University of Hawaii economists say the state is in a recession that started last quarter and will remain “deep and drawn-out” at least through 2009.

Hawaii, is projected to lose about 8,800 jobs next year and have visitor arrivals fall nearly 6 percent next year, according to the quarterly forecast released today by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

That would mean about 835,000 fewer visitors this year and 385,000 fewer next year.

The report was one of three forecasts released this week, all of which found the state’s economy to be on much shakier footing than even 90 days ago, the result of powerful turbulence from the global financial crisis.

The three forecasts also said Hawaii will not see any meaningful recovery from the downturn until 2010 at the earliest.

“The global financial crisis and widening global downturn have materially worsened prospects for the Hawaii economy,” wrote the authors, UH economists Carl Bonham and Byron Gangnes. “The Hawaii economy is now in recession, and as the downturn continues into 2009 we will see larger job and income losses than we have experienced to date.”

“We really think the fourth quarter of this year is going to be pretty bleak,” Bonham said and the first quarter of 2009 may be even worse, especially for the visitor industry.

“The consumer problems aren’t going to disappear after Christmas,” he said. “We really haven’t seen the full repercussions of a 20 percent drop in visitors.”

Hawaii’s unemployment rate, which had been historically low only a few quarters ago, is forecast to peak at 6.2 percent in the second half of 2009, and then remain above 5 percent through 2011.

My only personal thoughts on this report is that is not a surpise that the economy is in recession and will be for awhile, as anyone trying to make a mortagage payment and feed his family knows, but with that said……I still see the glass as half full……we may have 6% unemployment and 20% fewer visitors, but that means we HAVE 94% employment and 80% of the visitors are still coming to Hawaii…..each of us is responsible for keeping a positive attitude despite challenging times, so I urge you today to overcome the economy with a positive attitude and a smile, and remember, this too shall pass…..Aloha, Jon.

This entry was posted on Friday, November 21st, 2008 at 11:25 am and is filed under For Buyers, For Sellers, Market Watch, Updates. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.