Oahu Home Sales

According to a forecast done by the University of Hawai’i Economic Research Organization (UHERO) as part of its quarterly outlook on the state’s economy,the group said prospects for the state’s economy had taken a downturn since it issued a forecast three months ago with the failures of ATA and Aloha Airlines and a surge in oil prices.

“A significant recovery of the local economy will not begin until 2010, making this a relatively shallow but lengthy Hawai’i economic contraction,” said the report, which updated one that projected the state’s economic growth would “grind to a halt.”

“A deeper slowdown could occur if oil prices remain at their current record levels or if the national housing slump worsens more than expected.”

The revised UHERO outlook cut expectations for the eight economic indicators tracked by the group, with new tourism arrival projections calling for a 4.6 percent decline in visitors.

No exact comparisons exist for what the state is going through since the downturn after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks was sharp but relatively short, Gangnes said. Hawai’i's economic sluggishness of the 1990s lasted years with a succession of negative shocks creating a long stagnant period, he said.

“We don’t think that’s what we’re headed for this time around,” Gangnes said.

The new forecast also projects:

Visitor arrivals from the Mainland will decline 7.1 percent this year and increase 0.7 percent next.

Japanese visitor arrivals will fall by 8 percent.

Payroll jobs will be off 0.2 percent this year and by a similar amount next.

Unemployment will rise to 3.7 percent for the year and increase to 4.2 percent in 2009.

Energy and food costs will contribute to a 5 percent inflation rate this year. It will drop off to 2.2 percent next.

Significant content for this blog item was taken from an article written by Greg Wiles, of the Honolulu Advertiser.

This entry was posted on Saturday, June 14th, 2008 at 9:29 pm and is filed under For Buyers, For Sellers, Market Watch, Oahu Information, Updates. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.