Oh, If Only We’d Only Heard You Last Year!

Heard what? “You know when you said don’t buy yet, prices are still going down.”

Oh yeah, I did say that didn’t I? Yep and with good reason. I was seeing it in the MLS every day. The figures were going one direction only and there was no reason to believe otherwise. After all, except from maybe the National Association of Realtors who have to keep up a happy face, the news EVERY day on TV and the radio and in print was if anything, continually more grim than the day before. So I told them don’t buy yet. Prices are going down. That condo you just have to have because it’s walking distance to the beach is gonna be less expensive 6 months from now, and less than that a year later.

Well, they bought it anyway. From me? No, they went directly to the seller’s agent (who naturally, and legally bound by the laws of agency, encouraged what was in the best interest of their client, the seller) and bought the dream condo near the beach.

Okay, fast forward to now, a year or so later. One day recently with some time to kill, I called my friend/client to invite her for a coffee or lunch. She declines, too busy she says, since she’s starting a new job. And then she says:

“If only we’d heard you last year!” i-cant-hear-you.jpg

Yes, our neighbors just sold the same condo for $100,000 less! And our tenants are leaving at the end of the month and now all of a sudden for the first time in years, my husband has no work lined up!”

YIKERS! Well to every cloud there is a silver lining. TALK ABOUT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A BUYER NOW! That’s right. The market is what it is, but there are some very real buying opportunities (as evidenced by the bump up in sales in December that surprised many) if you are astute enough to recognize them. With the help of a good Realtor who has your best interests in mind (that agency thing again), and who has been closely following the market, you can find these things, and sadly perhaps to someone else’s dismay, score a property that has your name on it.

That’s my Tip of the Day!

Aloha, “Mikie”

Mikie Likes It LLC
Realtor Referrals

Michelle Kerr
(Principal Broker/Owner)

Phone: (808) 896-1943
eMail: Mike@MikeSells.com
website: MikeSells.com


  1. It is true, not near bottom yet. Feb 7

    4 to 5 years. We are half way in the decline. Look for 1997 prices… Wages, rents need to meet home values.

  2. Katharine Howard Feb 10

    I’ve been doing those darned BPO’s to make up for the lack of sales in 2008. I couldn’t tell a client to buy in 2008 because I knew that prices were falling. Hoping that they would come back when the market looked more desireable. Doing those darned BPO’s made it even more clear to me what was going on in the market. Almost all REO’s (or soon to be REO’s) were either bought or refinanced in 2005. My clients that listened are coming back now and will be happy they waited. It appears to me that all those bought or refinanced proprties from 2005 are worth about half of what they were worth in 2005. We are so on the same page Mike. Saw you at Costco and wanted to say more then hey! Your clients are soooo lucky to have you working for them. 2009 looks so much better already!

  3. Hanns Obermaier Feb 15

    Hello Mike,

    It is going to be very difficult to predict the absolute bottom. Here are some of my observations after a recent visit to the Big Island to look for opportunities in North and South Kohala.

    In North Kohala very few quality homes are available in the moderate price range ($300 – $500K) and many sellers are reluctant to reduce their asking price.

    In South Kohala, Waikoloa especially, there is such a glut of houses on the market that moderately priced quality homes move at about 10% below already reduced asking prices. A lot of “junk” is sitting on the market.

    It is my opinion that for investors that rely on an immediate positive cash flow will have to negotiate another 10% to 15% reduction since rents have collapsed and vacancies have skyrocketed.

    Cash buyers that have the ability to carry a property for several years with a small negative cash flow will do OK with the eventually firming-up of rents and appreciation in the long run (5+ years).
    There are deals that sell for around replacement value of the structure alone – meaning the land is free.

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