Analyzing those August market stats - Part 1 September 12, 2008
Posted by brobinson in : For buyers, For sellers, General , add a commentI just can’t help myself. It runs in the family. My mother recently told me that my brother the UNLV professor gave her a statistics lecture as they watched Deal or No Deal on television. I confess to my own graduate degree in economics, Piled Higher and Deeper. So feel free to skip the forthcoming lecture on what the monthly real estate stats and the UH forecasts are really saying!
The question my colleagues and I hear every day is “how far will prices drop?” And “In my home market there are condos selling for 30 cents on the dollar. Do you expect to see that happen here in a year or two?”
Let’s see whether recent news reports shed any light on the questions.
The report per Pacific Business News: Big Island home sales fell by almost half in August 2008 compared with the number of reported sales in August 2007. Year-to-date residential sales are down 33% and condo sales down 27%.
First, what is indisputably important information for you as a buyer or seller: the volume of transactions has declined significantly this year while active listings (inventory) increased. Willing buyers are fewer than this time last year…or in other words demand has decreased while supply is increasing. That means that unless a horde of buyers suddenly ride onto the scene, the market-clearing price at which all the inventory would be sold will have to trend down. Which is exactly what we see daily as price reductions are reported on the MLS. We see it in offers being accepted well below asking price. In other words, exactly what your agent has been telling you: if you are a buyer, it is a better time to buy than a year ago! If you are a seller, you must price realistically for this year’s market if you want to attract buyers.
What we don’t know is at what price the many qualified prospective buyers who are watching the market will begin to jump off the proverbial fence—or whether it is even a question of further price reductions that will give them the confidence to buy. If you are one of those buyers wondering if you should wait for a better price, the best advice I can give you is to work with an agent who is experienced in the particular neighborhood of interest and get them to give you all the data. See Part 2 of this post tomorrow for some suggestions on how to interpret the data.
A hui hou!
Beth
beth@hawaiipalmproperties.com
Cell: 808-443-4588
Hawaii Palm Properties, Inc
Office in downtown Hawi near Bamboo restaurant
www.hawaiipalmproperties.com
Too much ABC September 6, 2008
Posted by brobinson in : General, Mauna Lani Resort, Waikoloa Beach Resort , 2commentsMy husband (aka The Swiss Guy) and I ventured into the new Island Gourmet Market at the Queen’s Marketplace at Waikoloa Beach Resort last night, in search of dessert to take home after enjoying pupus and sunset at Halii Kai’s “First Friday” event for owners and realtors. We had been awaiting with great anticipation, especially since the Swiss Guy read many months ago that the market promised over 100 cheeses! We’ve become regulars at the smaller Foodland Farms since its opening at the Shops at Mauna Lani, and its competition promised to be several times the size with more on offer.
After traversing most of the 20,000 or so square feet market, Swiss Guy gave his succinct assessment “too much ABC and not enough KTA.” The gourmet market is a joint venture between ABC Stores, familiar to tourists for providing for their needs in hotel districts, and our local Big Island supermarket chain KTA. “Too much ABC” meant that at least a third of the space is devoted to t-shirts, mac nut candies, and souvenirs, a strange choice of product given the market’s location within a large complex with thousands of t-shirts for sale. “Not enough KTA” meant we were missing the things that make it our favorite place for groceries in Waimea or Kailua Kona: lots of locally grown produce and a large line of Island-grown and Island-produced items under the house “Mountain Apple” brand. The promised selection of cheeses was missing, as was any decent bread.
Now admittedly, we visited only days after its opening, and late enough at night that the take-out sections were no longer staffed. We do promise to give it a second chance in a month or so. Meanwhile, we think it would be worth the gasoline to drive to Waikoloa Village, where the Waikoloa Village Market is also KTA-affiliated and has the local products we enjoy (and quite possibly a larger selection of wine) or up to Mauna Lani for the bread, baked goods, and freshly made poke at Foodland Farms.
And stay tuned to this space! My colleague Catherine has volunteered to do a price-comparison on a picnic basket of items. With prices of foodstuffs rising on the Mainland, the cost of living is a question we are often asked by buyers considering the Big Island as a primary residence or second home. Good question, if your only frame of reference is the prices we saw at the Resort last night…which might give even fans of Whole Paycheck pause.
A hui hou,
beth@hawaiipalmproperties.com
Cell: 808-443-4588
Hawaii Palm Properties, Inc
Office in downtown Hawi near Bamboo restaurant
www.hawaiipalmproperties.com
Mauna Kea Beach Hotel - news or no news August 4, 2008
Posted by brobinson in : General, Mauna Kea Resort , 2commentsMy blogging buddy Mike Kerr beat me to the punch sharing highlights from the Summer Newsletter recently sent out by the Mauna Kea Beach Hotel team and reported over the weekend in our local newspaper West Hawaii Today.
Our office recently took a little pau hana (TGIF in Mainland lingo) picnic to the beach at Mauna Kea to have a swim and watch the sunset. The beach was almost deserted.
And the portion of the hotel that looked worst just after the earthquake looks quite habitable:
Some of the details of the newsletter’s description (”refined furnishings and fun finishing touches are subtly
supported by hi-tech bells and whistles to produce a luxury Guestroom experience that is ultra-high quality and ultimately comfortable”) got me thinking. Does anyone else remember the uproar it created when the hotel tried to change to color of its beach towels? The earthquake was like that total physical collapse that a hard-charging executive might need to take time out and attend to long-neglected health issues and find a different lifestyle balance. One by one, those changes might have been resisted and just too painful to implement. It almost has to be done as a complete overhaul.
Will the Hotel succeed in keeping the feel that made it a classic, while bringing the level of service and amenities to today’s standard? West Hawaii Today reports that although some of the rooms will now have (gasp!) televisions, the hotel will remain un-airconditioned.
There is hope yet!
Which brings me to the observation that there are also houses and condominiums for sale that remind me of the Grand Dame…of “a certain age” and with a soulful quality that newer residences often seem to lack. Call or email it that’s the kind of Big Island home you have in mind.
A hui hou,
beth@hawaiipalmproperties.com
Cell: 808-443-4588
Hawaii Palm Properties, Inc
Office in downtown Hawi near Bamboo restaurant
www.hawaiipalmproperties.com